PPG | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% | STL | BLK | TOV | PER | TS% | Total Offense | Total Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 44.1 | 35.3 | 87.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 19.7 | 54.8 | 77th Percentile | 35th Percentile |
It’s been a theme for the Kentucky basketball program to receive backlash over recent years because prospects who have elected to go there haven’t always been able to showcase the full extent of their talents on both ends of the floor.
Johnny Juzang is no exception to that notion.
Calipari has a system, recruits FOR that system and expects to win games for a high-profile program. Juzang was expected to come in as a Wildcat in 2019 and provide a level of outside shooting that the team needed to make another run in the postseason.
That didn’t go as planned, and Juzang rode the bench more often than not during that season, leading to his transfer to UCLA for 2020-21.
There has been plenty of speculation as to why Juzang never truly fit in to the rotation on a consistent basis. I’d lean towards some of his defensive limitations, which we will definitely cover here.
But it certainly wasn’t because of the instant offense Juzang can bring to a lineup in a hurry.
Let’s call it for what it is: Juzang is one of the best “heat check” guys in this draft class. When he gets hot from the perimeter, he’s shooting lasers out of his hands as he pulls the trigger with ZERO hesitation and thought behind it.
If you get him in a situation where he’s already made two or three shots in a row, forget it. Once that ball swings around to him it’s going up in a hurry. Whether that’s conducive at all times to winning basketball is a fun debate to have, but there’s no question at the bare minimum a coach loves to have that kind of weapon somewhere in the rotation to unleash at any given moment.
And Juzang had his brightest moments on the biggest stages of the NCAA Tournament.
UCLA coach Mick Cronin deserves a lot of credit for getting that team deep in the tourney despite the lack of depth. Multiple players who were far more than afterthoughts to the success of that Bruins squad, including the guy who was thought to be the best prospect initially and still could be in Chris Smith, weren’t available for Cronin to plug in against a team like Gonzaga.
But it didn’t matter. Everyone stepped up during the Pac-12 school’s Cinderella-type run, including Juzang. When that team needed a bucket late in the shot clock, everyone cleared out to the weak side to set up Johnny for an isolation dagger, or big man Cody Riley ran up to the top of the key to set up the confident wing for a mid-range pull-up.
Let’s actually start there in terms of looking at Juzang as a scorer, not just a shooter.
First off, the bill on Juzang coming out of high school to the novice college basketball fan was that he was exclusively a shooter. Being able to score the basketball in multiple ways inside the arc was something he was going to have to prove in order to generate any kind of draft buzz.
Way before the tournament even started, Juzang was operating out of the pick-and-roll scoring in bunches, leading to his pristine marks out of that play type in multiple categories per Synergy Sports. According to the database, Juzang ranked in the 96th percentile in pick-and-roll possessions as the ball handler and in the 95th percentile in pick-and-rolls including passes, both incredibly high marks for someone who has the skill set of a player who wouldn’t normally operate as a primary initiator.
Why does he succeed so well off a screen? Riley is an important part to that equation and Jaime Jacquez to an extent when called upon because they set rigid screens at the top of the arc, getting Juzang’s man to stick for a bit. That gives Juzang the time he needs so long as his head is up to make the correct decision off the screen, which any time the defense dropped in coverage and didn’t immediately switch and keep a body tight on him, he rose up in the mid-range off of one dribble and drilled a jumper. Being confident enough to hit a shot like that is a crucial skill to have coming into the NBA because it adds a dimension to an offensive package that’s more than just spotting up in the corner.
The fact that his one dribble pull-up was a CONSISTENT weapon all year long as the metrics rate out should mean a lot to scouts and executives. Now whether he can keep up that level of efficiency in the pros when he’s up against a defense that will switch off that screen and won’t give him the same kind of space he could walk into at times in college remains to be seen. Juzang is 6’6” which is very fair positional size at the SG spot, but he’s not a “built” guard per say, so he can get pushed off of a spot or put in a difficult position depending on the matchup.
Not only can the lack of strength be a little bit of a concern, his handle also could use some tightening up if a team were to envision him as someone who could run those play types with higher volume. It’s a little sloppy and Juzang wasn’t immune to turning the ball over after trying to pull off a dribble move around the back to create separation from the defense. He doesn’t have a BAD handle, but it’s something to monitor going forward.
Looking at his operation off screens other than purely shooting the ball, he can make a quick pass to the roll man should he dive off the screen, or he can make one read with his head up. But what I’ve noticed whether he’s passing off a screen or in the open court, if he has to make more than one read generally he’s going to push into a shot and try to make something happen instead of bringing it back out and resetting. Just from a pure basketball standpoint that’s something that will have to get cleaned up should he look to fill a starting lineup spot in the NBA.
Going the other direction, when he looks to penetrate and drive to the basket, he actually has some pretty clean foot work side stepping away from the defense or coming to a stop to spin or change directions for a less contested floater. He even worked out of the post to more success than anticipated in the tournament, using his feet to throw the defense off and either spin into a runner or fade for a fallaway jumper.
Again, he’s not the type of shifty guard/wing who can shake his man and make people miss in a more traditional sense with his handle. But there’s clearly more scoring ability there that has yet to be fully tapped into which bodes well for a role built around limited offensive initiation mixed with off-ball movement to get him into spots where he can go to work and focus on getting a bucket.
Speaking of moving without the ball, that’s another skill he will have to improve upon should he wish to take full advantage of his talents at the next level. When he’s not actively moving toward the ball or relocating for open shots from the perimeter, he’s missing out on so many looks he could’ve had. Now some of this comes from the offense that’s called, as said Cronin eventually looked to clear out for the hot hand and let the guy who was on fire go to work. In an offense predicated on more movement, Juzang would learn how to operate in that kind of system and he wouldn’t be left to recognize cutting or relocation opportunities purely on his own.
But the awareness and proper recognition to better understand how he can get to his spots quicker so he can fully benefit wasn’t on display more routinely during the regular season, only when he had gotten going did you see him actively hunt for the ball more often, which again likely comes back to the team’s offensive philosophies. In the tournament, he was a different player in that regard and seemed to understand how much the scoring burden weighed on his shoulders. That Juzang is the player I’d like to see more often in the league, regardless of how many minutes he plays or shots he gets up. Just that change in attitude and approach is like Mozart to a coach’s ears when they’re trying to figure out who fits where.
Because when he DID cut or run off a hand off for a shot he made the most of those situations. He was in the 96th percentile per Synergy off cuts and the 88th percentile in hand offs, so clearly he’s efficient in play types where he’s set up for success. Now it’s about getting him in those actions more often so he can light it up.
I’ve laid out his offensive approach and where he likely succeeds best at, but let’s talk about the defense, which as mentioned above likely kept him out of Calipari’s good graces in Lexington.
One of the games I was able to watch to further study Juzang was UCLA’s contest against Stanford toward the end of the regular season. Predictably, when the team fell behind they went to a press defense in which Juzang was picking someone up before half court. These are great looks at a defender’s stance and instincts because the opposing ball handler has so much room to work with bringing it up the floor. Juzang has to be on his toes, anticipating his man’s movements and beating him to spots to better contain him.
And containing someone on defense comes not only from lateral quickness but technique; that means hip movements and foot work.
On the defensive end, both of those are lacking for Juzang. He gets low enough when guarding someone one-on-one but he doesn’t “sit” in his stance well which doesn’t help his late reactions and recognitions as to where his matchup is going. And then when he gets beat initially, he’s not fast enough to pedal back and properly recover, and instead relies on using his hands to try and make up ground for him and naturally gets in foul trouble when doing so.
The best wing defenders sit in their stance, rotate their hips well and keep wide to contain their man in front of them, all with the anticipation of where they’re going of course. That’s a recipe for success for man defense in the NBA, and Juzang doesn’t have those principles down pat.
When he has to defend in space and operate within a team context, there are absolutely possessions where you’ll see him communicate with his teammates, keep his head up and rotate and switch where he has to. This approach wavers for JJ. He’ll stop communicating with his teammates and making callouts, and that’s when he gets lost and backdoored.
I’m not quite sure what leads to a lack of communication defensively and why it sometimes just “shuts off” from him, but these defensive concerns are valid and real. Regardless of what position he ultimately gets pigeon-holed into at the next level (I personally think he’s a two guard), he’s not going to impact the game defensively at an above average clip. Likely his best case scenario is to hover right around average and not tank his team completely, which could be an outcome if he’s going up against a lot of second units and is put in position with the right matchup.
There was a lot of talk right after UCLA’s Final Four run in which Juzang could be looked at as a potential lottery pick or mid-first round selection. I’m not sure I would take him that high because of a lot of the concerns we outlined above, particularly on defense. If you get burned on that end of the floor in the pros, generally it means you’re sitting on the bench as a situational offensive player.
That being said, Juzang has offensive potential that has yet to be fully reached. Microwave scorers and shooters in the second string are also valuable, particularly if there’s a backup PG out there who can act as the primary initiator and help get everyone in position to succeed. I question the volume at which Juzang should be responsible setting the table for his teammates, but he can do it in a pinch. And he can get hot in a hurry and score for bunches.
He could be a guy whose best outcome is to come back to college, play another year under a pretty good defensive coach in Cronin, and continue to work on his game from a technique standpoint to raise his draft stock. Should he stay in the pool, I’d expect him to be targeted with a late first/early second round pick.
Either way, Juzang was always a prospect even when some evaluators forgot about him because he transferred out of Kentucky. There is absolutely talent to harness in the right way. The question is, which teams are good candidates to unlock it?