Keon Johnson: 6'5", 186 lbs. 19 years old

There are varying opinions on the draft prospects of Tennessee’s Keon Johnson. How high is his ceiling? What will he struggle with once he steps foot in the league? What are reasonable outcomes for him given his talent?

One factor that plays into all of those questions is athletic ability, which is arguably the most common ground scouts, evaluators and fans have about his game and what he brings to the table.

Johnson may not be in the top 1% of NBA athletes once he’s drafted to a franchise, but there’s no debating he isn’t at least “good” if not in the upper most echelon.

And those tools at least prop the door open for conversation as to his value and how high he could go in the 2021 draft.

Not quite the YouTube sensation like some of his other peers, Johnson still has his mixtapes and highlights of him making a defensive play, getting out on the break and sending home a ferocious dunk at the high school and AAU levels. And on occasion he had those same moments playing for the Volunteers alongside other rigid defenders.

But I’m not here to necessarily “praise” Keon for his defensive efforts. He can be good in time, but what stands out to me when I pop on the film is actually what I observe in his approach to the game offensively.

One thing that separates star players in the league versus those who fall into supporting roles is demeanor. How do you measure yourself on the court against your competition and teammates? Do you see yourself as the number one option on offense? How many shots are you willing to pass up to get everyone around you involved, or are you going to seize every possible opportunity laying at your feet to put points on the board and prop up your own confidence and image?

Even though that last question seems like a negative trait to have as a scorer, sometimes you have to be selfish offensively when the team needs a player to step up in clutch situations. Having the willingness to take and make the big shot is what starts the conversation for many mainstream media outlets across the country, but as a scout it’s not something I HAVE to see in a prospect to take them with a lottery pick.

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t see that eagerness to shoot 20 shots a game from Johnson. Sure he competes his tail off on both ends, and he’ll be the first one to hype himself up if he gets the poster dunk, but scoring doesn’t seem to define who he is when you watch him on the floor in terms of the pace he plays at.

I’ve actually been impressed going back and watching more of his film at how calm he is when he handles and looks to make decisions. The ball doesn’t stick in his hands on offense. If the shot isn’t immediately there off the catch, or he doesn’t have a clear driving lane to attack the teeth of the defense, he doesn’t dribble, dribble, dribble and wait 10 seconds for an opportunity to present itself. Johnson moves the ball and finds somewhere else to be on the floor, be it a timely cut or just relocating to make sure the floor remains spaced for someone else to make a play.

Or my personal favorite, when he gives the ball up to gather himself in the post. It’s not typical to see a wing at the college level favor so well high or low. Usually that’s a skill set that manifests later in a player’s career, but that’s not the case for Keon.

Per Synergy Sports, Johnson ranked in the 60^th percentile in post-ups overall and in the 79^th percentile in post-ups including passes. As a wing, it’s pretty impressive to see him so high in both areas especially since he’s not a thick 6’5” power player. He has a slighter frame and will definitely need to keep adding to it to hit more of his theoretical versatile ceiling, but the early returns are promising and add another layer to his offensive attack.

Whether he hit a cutting teammate with a pass out of the post, used some of his foot work to create a look or even hit a fallaway jumper, Johnson displayed multiple examples of intriguing skill. If he’s able to take advantage of posting up guards or even other wings in the future as he continues to add to his strength base, it could eventually become something teams have to keep in the back of their minds as they’re game planning against him. Having another way to generate more efficient offense inside the arc is always a welcome addition to any player’s arsenal, and I’m curious as to how that will ultimately translate in the NBA.

The rest of his attack is predicated on his ability to break down a defense with his first step to get by defenders and find himself at the basket. Similar to someone else in this draft class Jonathan Kuminga, Johnson shouldn’t only have one mean to beat on a consistent basis or else he’ll find himself waltzing to the rim more than the opposing team would care to admit.

Now Kuminga’s first step is assisted by his size and power. Johnson doesn’t share the same physical stature, but he makes up for it in pure burst. Once he gets that initial step, he doesn’t have to worry about holding someone on his hip or someone pushing him off a spot. Unless there’s a help defender there to cut off his driving lane, he’s going to get to the basket. That line drive ability also compares favorably to Isaac Okoro, who while not the most dynamic creator from the perimeter, also has line drive speed that makes him a difficult matchup for defenses to contain if they don’t help and cut him off before he gets to the basket.

Once Johnson gets around the rim, he doesn’t have a diverse finishing package but he’s not afraid of contact and can go vertical over the top of the defense and extend to bank in a layup off an angle. Nothing flashy or special, but 56.3% shooting around the basket is good enough of a number to start with as he comes in for his rookie season.

The area in Johnson’s offensive game that’s talked about the most is his shooting because it’s been deemed by many as a weakness. While I don’t fully disagree that he needs repetition and improvement in that department, both off a dribble pull-up from the mid-range as well as on catch-and-shoot looks from three-point range, his mechanics are far from broken.

Matter of fact, his stroke is actually pretty smooth. Johnson gets great elevation on his jumper, vertical in his form, releases above his forehead and gets decent arc. When he misses, it’s generally because he rushed through his release or he didn’t square his body up to the basket right off the catch. If Johnson has a second to compose himself, he has the ability to knock down an open shot.

Off the bounce, he also showed some promising separation and foot work. Again, he doesn’t have that good of a handle so he’s not going to shake someone in more of a traditional sense. But the way he’s able to combine his first step with a move to the side to give himself space to get his shot off, along with the elevation as mentioned to ensure it’s not an easy look to block at least lay the groundwork for mid-range success.

Will he be a go-to shot maker in the league who should be tasked with making difficult shots at volume? No, but that’s not his game and that comes back to his demeanor. If the shot is there, he’ll take it. But he doesn’t look to dribble into traffic or put himself in a bad situation and that decision making is just as valuable.

Having shown he’s at least capable of scoring from all three levels, acting as a willing passer and willing to relocate and cut on offense to free himself or others up for better opportunities are all traits of a really solid role player with plenty of room to grow.

If his skills take off and he’s able to handle more volume like Okoro has proven he’s capable of at times even in his first year for the Cleveland Cavaliers, then we’d be talking about a third or possibly even a second option on a good team. Not every player in a draft class is a bona fide star, but finding guys who can contribute in different ways with the potential to keep improving is also a goal of any front office.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, I have my share of concerns.

By the measurables, one wouldn’t expect Johnson to struggle at times on that end of the floor as long as he’s competing and giving effort, which he does.

The issue that so many young players have when they first step onto an NBA floor is processing the game at the speed in which it’s being played.

Professional athletes are paid to play the game and practice for a significant chunk of time each day. That means plays are run more efficiently and there’s less thinking and more doing. That’s a significant step to take, which means all rookies have some level of adjustment to make on the defensive end once they get to the league.

Problem is, Johnson had plenty of moments in college where he was lost in keeping up with where the ball was going and what the offense was doing away from his direct matchup.

One glaring example I can think of is in Tennessee’s first contest with Kentucky back in February where Johnson and teammate Jaden Springer weren’t supposed to switch, at least that’s how Springer intended. Johnson didn’t recognize that his man had slipped through and spread out to the opposite wing until it was too late, so Johnson instead picked up Springer’s man and left Jaden to run out to the opposite side.

That play didn’t directly lead to a basket, but the lack of recognition as well as communication to call out the blown assignment and switch wouldn’t fly well with a professional coaching staff or team. Johnson blew the coverage and tried to make up for it by re-engaging on the ball handler. Losing sight of movement and focusing solely on the ball is a recipe for disaster defensively.

I could point to two main reasons why I Johnson got caught in that type of situation more often than not. The first reason being he doesn’t keep his head on a swivel the way one is expected to in the NBA.

Take a player in this class like Jared Butler for example. The biggest reason for his success on the defensive end outside of taking pride in what he does is that he’s always aware of what’s going on because his head is moving left to right more times than I can count on any given possession.

You don’t see that from Johnson, and I would hope that comes from continued growth and development through film study and consistent practice time. But having a feel for the game and knowing HOW to figure out what’s going on around you at all times is crucial to having success on defense at any level but particularly on a league that’s about moving without thinking more than anything else.

The other main issue for Johnson defensively that goes hand-in-hand with his vision of what’s happening off the ball is how close he tries to play his man one-on-one. I’m all for smothering technique if used correctly, but being right up in his man’s grille can significantly limit his field of view. For someone who already struggles with scanning the floor and reacting to off ball movement, backing off of his man just a smidge would likely be a good starting point to figuring the rest out.

Now these concerns are mainly tied to everything happening away from the ball. Depending on his matchup, Johnson has the lateral mobility to keep up and contain his man. Bigger wings could give him some problems because he’s not at the point yet where he’s more resistant to being pushed off a spot.

But if he gets put on a guard he has a high probability to force that ball out of his man’s hands and flung somewhere else on the floor. I wouldn’t consider him a stopper on that end though, which is where the Okoro comparison falls flat. Okoro has the build along with the speed and motor to swallow up a considerable amount of NBA wings (obviously the cream of the crop can cook anyone at any given moment).

Even if Keon doesn’t become a defensive wrecking ball, between his motor and athletic ability he should be able to settle somewhere above average as long as he keeps his head up and focuses on getting better at reading the floor not just his man in front of him.

After all, not every wing plays with the effort to hustle back in transition to clean up a mistake and block a jump shot within a matter of seconds. And that didn’t just happen one time this year, but a handful. Any team in the league would appreciate that kind of defensive playmaking, and so would the fans who would plaster the highlight all over social media.

With everything I laid out here, what exactly does this mean for Johnson’s projected fit and outcome in the NBA?

There’s no question he has some enticing skills and traits that should he continue to develop them, his ceiling could become even higher than I’m willing to bet on. The reasonable middle ground would be that he becomes a well-rounded wing who can support a team on both ends of the floor scoring, passing and playing defense. In today’s game, that’s still a really valuable player but not necessarily the same level of talent one might argue is worth a top 10 pick.

Then there’s the “bust factor”. I don’t think Johnson will bust out of the league by any means, but if the shot doesn’t become more consistent, the post-up ability and passing don’t translate well and he never buys into improving defensively within team concepts, then that’s not a starter in the league and likely more of an 8^th to 10^th man in a rotation. That isn’t a desirable outcome for a lottery selection.

I only expect Johnson to keep getting better and sharper as time goes by. Wings who show versatility and physical upside like Keon are generally well respected in the NBA, so I’d expect him to go in the top 10 and I would safely take him there if I were in charge of making that decision.



But we’re making a bet on upside here, which is always a fun yet scary proposition for scouts and executives around the league. Always bet on talent, youth and a good kid. Johnson embodies all of those from any intel I’ve heard, so you know where I would stack my chips.